Key US data as the USD weakens, with GBP on a roll!
This afternoon we have key US inflation data, following a weakening USD and a stronger Pound which set the scene for September as the market starts to predict the pace and magnitude of upcoming rate cutshis afternoon we have key US inflation data, following a weakening USD and a stronger Pound which set the scene for September as the market starts to predict the pace and magnitude of upcoming rate cuts
GBP: A stellar week for GBP, hitting yearly highs vs USD and EUR. With the Bank of England remaining relatively silent on rate cuts, it looks like the UK will only see one 0.25% rate cut in 2024 whereas the US and Europe are likely to see more substantial cuts. This disparity has kept the pound strong against its peers this week
GBP/USD has held at levels near 1.3200 and GBP/EUR has maintained levels near 1.1900.
USD: The Federal Reserve has made it clear that they will cut US interest rates in September – but the market is undecided whether it will be 0.25% or 0.5% (the odds are in favour of 0.25%). Today’s PCE Inflation data will therefore be a KEY EVENT in the decision-making making process, and sure to move the USD. A weaker number this afternoon might bring back strength to the USD after weakening all week long.
Today’s data is expected to show Core Inflation rising to 2.7% annually. We still have 2 more inflation numbers before the September decision, but each data-point will be closely watched.
The rhetoric is now pronounced from the Fed: Federal Reserve (Atlanta) President Bostic, a prominent hawk on the FOMC, indicated on Thursday that it might be "time to move" on rate cuts due to further cooling inflation and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate.
These signals have served to weaken the USD, with EUR/USD moving from 1.0900 up to 1.1200 last week – resting at 1.1100 now. Another break through 1.1200 might see a prolonged bout of USD weakness ahead.
EURO: German inflation data was weak, and boosted hopes of a further 0.25% interest-rate cut in September, and ahead this morning we have Eurozone Inflation which is expected to show a steep fall in inflation (to 2.2% from 2.6%). If this is the case, a rate cut will seem VERY likely in September, and the EURO may weaken further as the market starts to price in further cuts through 2024.
France, Germany and Spain are all exhibiting declining inflationary pressures and the medium term outlook for the EURO remains weak – especially against the soaring Pound.
GBP/EUR at 1.1900 marks the highest level in a year, and EUR/USD sits at 1.1100, having been higher last week at yearly highs of 1.1200
CAD: CAD has been benefitting from elevated oil prices (due to supply-side issues in Libya as well as the Middle East tensions), with USD/CAD trading around 1.3480.